Geostrategy of Modi’s speech in the Congress

“Terrorism is incubated in India’s neighborhood”, the cliche could only be stated by the monster himself, the one who’s self explanatory history narrates his fetish for power and ideological extremism “not Islamic” though, yet an example for the world. Double standards continue and along with it the distortion and manipulation of facts, which were evident during Narendre Modi’s visit to the US. He becomes the fifth Indian Prime Minister to have addressed the United States Congress, after which he is being hailed as a miracle leader for India’s needed future progress. As a matter of fact, his speech carried two main objectives:

modi-7

1) Terrorism as a common factor to continue and expand the area of bilateral relations between US and India Several times in his speech Modi used the word terrorism, not surprising though, as it has been Indian government’s sole plea-play (pun intended), for a long time to earn an edge over neighboring Pakistan’s fight against terrorism. To put Kashmir on the back-burner and continue beating the drums about terrorism, which most likely than not has roots inside India itself. Be it Mumbai attacks or Pathankot incident, none of these highly sensationalized terrorist acts were proven to be funded having links with Pakistani state.

 

On the other hand, India has highly militarized the illegitimately occupied Kashmir valley, where about 700,000 Indian troops are stationed, a direct example of state terrorism.

 

Narendre Modi said in his Congress speech: “I commend the members of the U.S. Congress for sending a clear message to those who preach and practice terrorism for political gains.

“Refusing to reward them is the first step towards holding them accountable for their actions” – directly referring to US support to Pakistan, regarding handing over of US F-16 jets to help Pakistan in its fight against terrorism.

 

Furthering his stance over US’s security alliance with Pakistan, he kept convincing the Congress to develop a security alliance with the India. He said:

 

We have both lost civilians and soldiers in combating it.

The need of the hour is for us to deepen our security cooperation.

And, base it on a policy:
• that isolates those who harbor, support and sponsor terrorists;
• that does not distinguish between “good” and “bad” terrorists; and that delinks religion from terrorism.

 

2) Greater partnership for regional strategic interest The second Important point worth noting in his speech was for a great regional partnership. Formation of two blocs in Asia seem quite possible and evident in this regard.

 

He said: “Before arriving in Washington D.C., I had visited Herat in Western Afghanistan to inaugurate Afghan-India Friendship Dam, a 42 MW hydro-electric project built with Indian assistance.

 

But, your contribution in keeping the region safe and secure is deeply appreciated even beyond.

 

“India too has made an enormous contribution and sacrifices to support our friendship with Afghan people.

A commitment to rebuild a peaceful, and stable and prosperous Afghanistan our shared objective”

 

With India’s interest in Afghanistan, it is leaving no stone unturned to form regional supremacy by winning US consent on its role in Afghanistan, while PM Modi has been visiting Kabul for some imminent occasions, while he also lately tweeted in Afghani native language, a special message for Afghanistan, displaying the desperation on the Indian part for regional hegemony. India’s interest in Afghanistan in multi faceted though, where Pakistan’s seems to be the direct affectee.

 

CkGB12jWYAEzyld

Implications for Pakistan

In the perspective of uproar about the new geostrategic and maritime rivalry between Pakistan and India over the Gwadar port and Chabahar port, visit of Narendre Modi to the US and his enthusiasm about a greater partnership on the regional level with Uncle Sam, cherry topped by his “punch line” on how US needs to send a “clear message” to the ones harboring terrorism is sure shot reassurance of the future regional dynamics. Pakistan in this scenario, though a “titular” or “symbolic” ally to the US has never received the welcoming applause and acceptance as that of India’s PM, the Pak-US partnership has been wallowing through several agreements and disagreements, never a smooth ride. Pakistan’s strategic ties with China pose a threat to US’s regional aspirations, with Gwadar port on the horizon US sees India as an ever more suitable regional protege for furthering its motives, however, the Indian support comes with a price – it’s demand for the endorsement of its“Anti-Pakistanism”doctrine.

 

Quite interestingly, on most levels, India seem to be a more natural ally to US than Pakistan. Firstly, because India is a “Hindu” state, and that definitely does not have much to do with it being Hindu but it being “Non Muslim” state, ideals of which are seen interpreted and inculcated in its policy making processes, especially under the current Hindu nationalist government of BJP. Secondly, India is a democracy, not that Pakistan is not, but the Indian democracy is traditional and continuous, something that Pakistan lacks. Pakistan’s sources of decision making are multi faceted and not necessarily democratic. As a matter of fact, Pakistan has its own valid reasons for that matter but they are not up to to the standards of US and its allies. Thirdly, India has a growing economy, which fits right into the regional balancing-of-power theory US seems to tow in order to counter Chinese influence, a communist and economically THE second largest in the world. Afghanistan, which is the melting pot of many international troops, investments and ambitions is the hub of all the game-plan, from China to Russia, India to US have great stakes there, seen as a gateway to the resource-rich Central Asian Republics CARs, Afghanistan’s internal political dynamics are also favourable towards India currently compared to Pakistan. Neverthless, Pakistan sees Afghanistan as an indispensable part of its security concerns, quite evidently, Pakistan’s insurgencies and terrorism has a direct link to Afghanistan sharing porous borders with Pakistan, and an influx of huge, and mostly unidentified refugees posing a threat to Pakistan’s security.

 

Chabahar port, though it is an Iranian soil, it seems to not have US eyeballs rolled or eyebrows raised, interestingly Gwadar is greater concern for the US and its allies despite Iran having traditional tussle with US and west.

 

Fourthly, India stands on similar page, or if not similar, yet closer or neutral to US’s interests over International conflicts like Palestine, Syria, Middle Eastern conflicts, Ukraine and others. Mr Modi referring to US as an “Indispensable partner” would have an impact on Pakistan’s regional standing, magnitude of which time will only reveal.

 

 India for NSG and MTCR

Another most important reason for Modi’s visit to the US is the interest to win India membership to NSG & MTCR. MTCR – Missile Technology Control Regime was established in April 1987, it is a voluntary association of 34 countries — 35, once India is formally included – and four “unilateral adherents” that follow its rules: Israel, Romania, Slovakia, Macedonia. By becoming part of this regime India would adhere to the rule of the regime which entails restriction of export of nuclear capability on certain dangerous material while there is a category under which countries can export the material following the applied rules. By becoming a member state to the regime, India would have more reasons to convince the US to consider exporting UAVs, Reaper and Global Hawk, which have been key to counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen, as stated by the Indian Express.

 

India seems quite eager to acquire its membership into Nuclear Supplier Group, which will allow it to easily grow and expand its nuclear capability,  India has been trying, since 2008, to join the group, which would give it a place at the high table where the rules of nuclear commerce are decided  – and, eventually, the ability to sell equipment. Many countries are opposing India’s membership to the group, as India is not signatory to NPT Non proliferation treaty, but it has been supported by the US after George Bush signed Civil Nuclear Deal with India. Nevertheless, China has been opposing India’s entry into the group which poses a sole obstacle in the way of its membership, it is so eager to acquire.

 

Pakistan’s inclusion in SCO

Just when India is rubbing its heels for membership in NSG, Pakistan won its formal full membership into Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The more closer Pakistan is becoming to the regional alliances with China, the more India seems eager to find a by cosying up with the US.

 

A full SCO membership will help Pakistan strengthen its role in regional and global politics, economies and infrastructure by promoting regional connectivity through the One Belt One Road and Eurasian Economic Union projects.

 

Recommendations

  • China and Pakistan should work towards building a greater regional union with inclusion of Russia in the equation, in order to counter the Indo-US alliance and the future threats to Gwadar and CPEC.
  • Pakistan must enhance its traditional foreign relations with Turkey, KSA, and others to counter international alienation.
  • Economic and Security problems are the core to Pakistan’s international situations, thus they need to be worked on in order to win more favours.
Advertisements
%d bloggers like this: